An independent analytical publication
Clear judgements.
Open to scrutiny.
With Some Confidence examines contested questions in geopolitics, security, technology and public life. We use public sources to reach reasoned judgements—and show how we reached them.
Read the assessment first. Follow the evidence as far as you want. Conclusions can change when the evidence does.
The publication
Assessments
The first assessment is still ahead.
No assessments published yet. When there is work to read, it will appear here—with its evidence and reasoning.
01 / Evidence
Show the foundations.
A source’s claim and an established fact are different things. Readers should be able to see which is which.
02 / Judgement
Make the assessment.
Incomplete information calls for calibrated judgement, with the important limits beside it.
03 / Revision
Leave room to change.
New evidence can change an answer. Errors call for a clear correction.
Read the corrections policy →